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Housing Prices, Affordability, And Other Things You Need To Know

In 2008 the median family income was $63,366, interest rates were 6.15%, the median home price was $196,600 and the Monthly P and I on that house was $958. Today the median family income is slightly lower at $61,544, but the median price house has dropped to $165,600 with a median interest rate of 4.51% makes the Monthly P and I on that house an affordable $672! (see National Association of Realtors Chart below).

Ummm.. So what? Bottom line is that housing is much more affordable today than three years ago. This is causing downward pressure on inventory. Add to this that the pipe line is not being filled with new foreclosures as fast as it was even two years ago and you will see price appreciation.

NAR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
Interest rates are at an all time low and the availability of money to QUALIFIED borrowers is relatively plentiful. You can see from the chart below that interest rates on 30 year conventional financed loans have dropped to an average of 4.36% with fees associated with those loans at less than one point.

INTEREST RATE AND PRICE SUMMARIES
I generally don't like to talk about national price trends, but the below chart regarding price appreciation is helpful in looking at the trends on appreciation and I believe that South Florida is ahead of this curve. Our markets are above the line at the lower end and probably on par at the higher price points. I have included a Housing Price Index Chart as well but keep in mind this is about TRANSACTION PRICES in other words on houses that are sold. The prices tend to have downward pressure because mostly the lower prices homes are sold not the higher end. This has a tendency to skew the numbers. I included three metro areas for you to review Naples/Marco Island, Cape Coral/Fort Myers, and Tampa, St. Pete, Clearwater all areas where Market America Realty has market presence.

FOUR QUARTER APPRECIATION THROUGHOUT THE U.S.

HOUSING PRICE INDEX SUMMARY
Ok, enough on data. What are we seeing? We are certainly seeing a reduction in inventory of available homes locally. We have more buyer leads now, measured on a monthly basis, since we have been tracking them. The sales offices are packed, but tastes have changed towards cost effective, smaller homes. Buyers are taking their time. They are not concerned with rapid price increases or a quick rise in interest rates. For the right home that meets their needs, buyers are paying at ask or above, after all an increase in $20,000 does not translate in much more of a monthly payment and the general feeling is that the prices are a bargain (and they are!)

I see the next 24 to 36 months will return us to a balance of replacement cost to selling prices and therefore a return to building new. Even now companies like Lennar are beginning to build again. I do not see a return to high rise condo building so buyers of these should do well over the next five to seven years on price appreciation.

Politically I am concerned about the rising debt and its effect on inflation, but as a real estate investor I see the upward pressure on prices will be positive. I want to own things, not cash.

The end of year brings with it the planning and predictions for the new year.

Author Resource:- Please visit our website to view updated Florida real estate listings.

Search Ft Myers Foreclosures
Search Orlando Foreclosures

In my role as a broker I run what I would call a "boutique" real estate agency and I run my new franchise, Engel and Voelkers Fort Myers River District - high end residential homes. I am a motivator, a canceler of energy, and sometimes coach.
Submitted 2012-02-08 09:13:17
By: Gregg Fous 99 or more times read
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