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Understanding How Sports Lines and Odds are Created
Usually set by reputable oddsmakers, sports odds and lines are determined after conducting thorough analyses of team performances, statistical trends and various other indicators known to be revealing of a game’s aftermath. While a small fraction of today’s sportsbooks rely on their own teams of oddsmakers, the large majority of sports betting services follow Vegas lines, which are established by an organization called Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
At present, Vegas lines act as a benchmark for most sportsbooks operating in the State of Nevada, as well as nearly all licensed bookmakers on the Old Continent. Moreover, these lines stand out as the main point of reference in deciding virtually all sports odds in the betting industry.
From the moment they are announced till the start of the game they are tied to, Vegas lines can fluctuate by either a small or a sensible margin. This can happen for two reasons:
1. Sudden changes in weather and injury reports;
2. Deliberate, knowledgeable intervention from the sportsbooks.
In most instances, the largest moves of the line take place due to the latter reason, since all sportsbooks chase the vigorish or juice (a commission deducted from overall wager value) and the only way to make sure they earn it is through direct intervention. To achieve this, the sportsbooks’ main strive is to maintain equal action on both sides of their wagers by adjusting Vegas lines and attached Vegas odds depending on the response they intend to obtain.
As long as things are well-balanced and kept under control, sportsbooks get to walk with the vig and therefore make a profit regardless of whether bettors win or lose their wagers. However, seasoned bettors are well versed at identifying lines that are altered artificially, and can use this indicator to their own advantage.
Typical Vegas lines generally follow the pattern shown below:
Team_____Line___Total___Money Line
A___ -4_____30_______-120
B___+4______________+90
The minus sign indicates the favorite, while the plus sign shows the underdog; while a negative money line allows you to earn more than your original investment, a positive money line indicates exactly the opposite. Taking the example shown as reference, to win $100 on Team A you would have to invest $120 plus the return of your bet, while collecting $100 by backing Team B would only require a $90 investment.
A common addition to virtually any respectable online sportsbook, point spread-based wagers are a great example for illustrating how the oddsmakers attempt to even out the action on both sides of a bet. In the example given above, the favorite is expected to win by a margin of four points, which means that it would actually have to win by five points for you to collect on your bet – this is known as “covering the spread”. If the game ends with a four-point difference, the wager is rendered void and you get a refund.
Betting the underdog presents you with three different opportunities to win with your wager: you get to collect either when Team B wins, loses by fewer than four points, or manages to hang on to a tie. Regardless of any eventual moves of the line, betting the underdog invariably envelops better value, but on the other hand is exceptionally risky and should only be done knowledgeably.
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